SACRAMENTO — The California Senate voted Tuesday to move the state's presidential primary from June to February in hopes of increasing the state's political clout -- but the plan could backfire.
The Senate passed a measure that would enable Democrats and Republicans to choose presidential nominees Feb. 5 instead of June 3. The bill is expected to be heard in the Assembly next week and to pass easily. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has said he will sign it.
Lawmakers hope that an early California primary will force contenders to rethink a campaign strategy that traditionally focuses on face-to-face persuasion in New Hampshire and Iowa, which hold the country's first primaries or caucuses in January.
But at least four other big states are poised to hold early primaries as well, potentially eroding the greater role California hopes to play.
Legislation similar to California's is pending in Illinois, Texas, Florida and New Jersey. And politicians in New York and elsewhere are pondering early primaries.
Pennsylvania and Indiana have bills that would move their primaries to the first week of March.
At least eight states have tentatively scheduled primaries or caucuses for Feb. 5. States must notify the Democratic National Committee by May as to when they will hold their presidential primary or caucus and the Republican National Committee by September.
"Everybody's sort of watching everybody else right now," said Tim Storey, an elections expert with the National Conference of State Legislatures. "It's this giant game of chicken."
California lawmakers say they no longer want the state to be a cash machine for presidential candidates who raise money here but don't stick around to discuss issues of keen concern, such as immigration.
"California is the biggest, most influential state in the nation, yet its current June presidential primary virtually ensures that the major party nominees will be determined before our votes are cast," said state Sen. Ron Calderon (D-Montebello), author of SB 113, which passed 31 to 5.
But if a slew of other states with similar aspirations move up their primaries and no clear winner emerges next February, states with primaries in April, May and June could end up determining the nominations.
"Moving up could just put you in the fog with all those other states there in the beginning, and by holding off you become the linchpin," Storey said. "It's all kind of Rube Goldberg -- if this, then that. Who knows what's going to happen?"
