Can Arnold win on healthcare?

ARNOLD Schwarzenegger used to be compared to Ronald Reagan, another Hollywood actor who starred on the political stage in Sacramento. Lately, Schwarzenegger's enthusiasm for bond issues and freeways has been more reminiscent of Pat Brown, the builder-governor who preceded Reagan. But on Monday, when Gov. Schwarzenegger unveils his ballyhooed plan to provide health insurance for 6.5 million uninsured Californians, he will invite comparison to the legendary Gov. Earl Warren, who in 1945 put forth a visionary plan offering state-subsidized medical insurance for all but the wealthiest Californians.

Until now, Schwarzenegger has been more the anti-Warren. Last year, he vetoed a bill providing for a government-run health system, saying, "socialized medicine is not the solution to our state's healthcare problem." He also has been the anti-Reagan and the anti-Brown, governors who shared a willingness to raise taxes to pay for programs they believed were necessary. Schwarzenegger came to office vowing not to increase taxes, a promise he renewed last year during his reelection campaign.

Ever since a healthcare summit at UCLA in July, however, Schwarzenegger has been promising to tackle the challenge of California's inefficient health system, which the governor maintains is "broken." A recent study by the Public Policy Institute of California found that 25% of adults in Los Angeles County have no insurance coverage. Private employers, faced with rising costs, are reducing or eliminating healthcare coverage for employees. Uninsured and underinsured patients jam trauma clinics and emergency treatment centers, some of which have closed because of financial pressures. Only 75 such clinics and centers remain to serve the 10 million people of Los Angeles County, according to the state Health and Human Services Agency.

In his speech in Sacramento on Monday, Schwarzenegger will propose what Kim Belshe, his Health and Human Services secretary, calls a "comprehensive plan" with "shared responsibility" for controlling costs and expanding health coverage among individuals, employers, the government, and medical providers and insurers. In an interview, Belshe reiterated the governor's message that the insured pay a "hidden tax" to provide coverage to the uninsured. According to a study by the nonpartisan New America Foundation on which the Schwarzenegger administration has relied, this tax amounts to an extra $1,200 a year in premiums for the average California family.