MOGADISHU, SOMALIA — By launching a war against Somalia's Islamists, Ethiopia says it was drawing a line in the sand against religious extremism in East Africa. But without quick diplomacy and international aid, analysts caution that the war could radicalize the region's traditionally moderate Muslims.
"This could bode ill for both Somalia and eastern Ethiopia, but perhaps even northern Kenya," said John Prendergast, Africa analyst at International Crisis Group, a conflict-resolution think tank based in Washington.
Signs of a budding insurgency already are emerging in Mogadishu. Gunshots and riots rocked Somalia's capital on Saturday as Ethiopian troops clashed with Somalian protesters. A 13-year-old Somalian boy was killed. Anonymous pamphlets distributed in some neighborhoods warned locals to steer clear of Ethiopian and allied soldiers from Somalia's transitional government. The pamphlets pledged guerrilla tactics and suicide attacks.
At least one Ethiopian soldier was killed by Somalian gunmen last week near the town of Kismayo. On Thursday, a group of Ethiopian soldiers in Mogadishu was attacked with a hand grenade tossed from a truck; no one was injured.
"They will never take our country!" anti-Ethiopian demonstrators chanted Saturday as they marched through Mogadishu. "We will fight for our religion."
The protests came as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi E. Frazer prepared to make a brief visit to Mogadishu to support efforts to deploy Africa Union peacekeepers in Somalia. The visit would be the first in years to Somalia by a senior U.S. official.
American officials supported Ethiopia's intervention, accusing Somalia's Islamic Courts Union of having links to terrorism. The U.S. has earmarked $40 million for Somalia's recovery.
Although Ethiopia is about half Muslim and half Christian, extremists in Somalia and elsewhere are characterizing Ethiopia's presence here as a Christian occupation. On Friday, a deputy leader of the Al Qaeda terrorist network posted a website message calling for attacks on Ethiopian troops in Somalia.
Many believe the U.S. encouraged Ethiopia to lead the assault last month to put an African face on the war, though Ethiopian officials say the U.S. opposed a direct military attack in Somalia. For better or worse, analysts say, America is now linked to Somalia's recovery.
