IMAGINE a world in which the best sparkling wines come from Surrey in southern England, not Champagne. A world where Monterey Bay is home to California's best Cabernet Sauvignons and Sweden produces world-class Rieslings.
It's not science fiction. A growing number of climatologists are warning that by the turn of the next century, such a radically altered wine map could be the new reality. They say man-made greenhouse gases warming the planet are expected to shift viticultural regions toward the poles, cooler coastal zones and higher elevations.
Burgundian Syrahs? Quite likely. Scientists say that, in 50 years, Napa could be as hot as the Central Valley's Lodi appellation is now. Bordeaux is on track to have a climate similar to France's southern Languedoc region. Germany, on the other hand, will be producing luscious red wines.
"I don't think you can make a vineyard decision today based on historical information," says David Graves, one of the owners of Napa Valley's Saintsbury wines. "You have to factor in climate change."
As he paces the floor at his Carneros winery, Graves explains that vintners plant and tend their vineyards with an eye to a 50-year horizon. Now the future seems unknowable, he says.
Wine is the canary in the climate-change coal mine, according to climatologists. Even slight changes in climate can wreak havoc on high-quality wine, making it particularly vulnerable to global warming.
In young, dynamic wine regions like California, where the weather is currently considered optimal, it is difficult to track global warming's effects. So many things are constantly changing. But the research suggests that such regions may be at the edge of what is ideal. Slight climate changes could be enough to push them over that edge.
Meanwhile, in European wine regions that have struggled to ripen grapes for centuries, global warming is a cause for celebration. Each year in the last decade seems to have brought another "vintage of the century."
No question, says London-based wine critic Jancis Robinson, global warming is changing wines. "Dry German wines now are seriously delicious. English wines and Canadian wines have benefited." On the other hand, she says, wines from warmer regions including Spain and Australia are suffering the rise in temperature.
