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Immigration proved too hot for Bush, Congress to handle

THE NATION | NEWS ANALYSIS

July 01, 2007|Janet Hook, Times Staff Writer

But the issue is not an easy one to overlook: Illegal immigration is woven tightly into the fabric of day-to-day lives across the country.

Failure to decide how to handle the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. is tantamount to establishing a permanent underclass larger than the population of Ohio.


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Absent of federal action, a major shift could occur in the national balance of power on illegal immigration: More state and local governments are likely to act on their own in response to clamor for a crackdown. The result would be to the detriment of those who seek a solution more accepting of illegal immigrants and could create a patchwork of conflicting laws.

Nevertheless, it is hard to see Bush and Congress revisiting the issue soon. Key players in the debate -- especially those who took the lead in seeking a comprehensive solution -- are unlikely to risk another dramatic failure.

For Bush, the immigration initiative was the domestic policy capstone of his second-term agenda -- and the cornerstone of his plan to expand the GOP by making his party more welcoming to Latinos. Now, his domestic policy cupboard is bare, and his hopes of building a lasting GOP majority are in tatters.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), a leading Bush ally on the issue, has seen his presidential prospects dim in no small measure because of his support for the immigration bill. His rivals for the presidency delight in pointing out that he cosponsored the bill with liberal icon Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.).

For Democrats, who control the House and Senate, another failed attempt at immigration overhaul could be exploited by Republicans who criticize their stewardship of Congress as unproductive.

And incumbents of both parties risk the wrath of a public that is increasingly jaundiced about Washington's ability to address major problems.

"Americans don't believe the government is representing them, acting on their behalf," said Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.). "We will not restore their confidence if we fail to act."

The immigration bill, the product of a "grand bargain" by a bipartisan coalition including Kyl and Kennedy, died in part because its backers' enthusiasm wasn't strong enough against the intensity of its opponents.

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