CALIFORNIA'S decision to move its presidential primary to Feb. 5 not only gives the state the earliest primary in its history, it opens up the possibility that Californians will be the first voters in big numbers in the nation, beating out such traditional early-voting states as Iowa (Jan. 14), New Hampshire (Jan. 22) and South Carolina (late January).
How is this possible?
Because a growing number of absentee voters in California receive their ballots and cast their votes weeks before election day, and if this pattern is repeated next year, these voters will be making their choices as early as three weeks before the Feb. 5 primary. What's more, their choices could influence how others vote in the early states.
Absentee voting in California has surged only in the last few election cycles, a phenomenon unique among the major states because such voting has been made so easy here. Accompanying the sample ballot for an upcoming election is an application to vote absentee.
In 2006, 3.7 million California voters cast absentee ballots in the general election, nearly 42% of the total vote. According to a study by the nonpartisan California Target Book, which I co-edit, about 2.1 million of those votes were counted by county elections officials before the polls opened Nov. 7 because absentee voters mailed in their completed ballots as early as two to three weeks before the election.
The vast majority of these early voters were categorized as "permanent absentee voters." That means they automatically received a ballot in the mail after applying for one and opting to continue the practice. Overall, there were 4 million permanent absentee ballots mailed to voters in the 2006 election, up from 2.2 million in 2004. Post-election analysis of the 2006 vote showed that at least 80% of these voters, or 3.2 million, returned them.
County officials can begin processing requests for absentee ballots and mailing them to permanent absentee voters 29 days before the Feb. 5 election. That means Jan. 7, a week before the Iowa caucuses and two weeks before the New Hampshire primary.
In 2004, total combined caucus and primary turnout in these two states was 370,000. Given the 4 million permanent absentee voters in California, of which half are expected to cast an early ballot in the 2008 primary, it's not a stretch to argue that at least that many Californians will have voted, if not before Iowans caucus, certainly before New Hampshire residents go to the polls.
