WASHINGTON — The Bush administration and U.S. military officials predicted Thursday that a key September report would show progress in Iraq, but that it would be November before they could judge the success of the troop buildup.
The comments -- coming a day after congressional Democrats failed to force a change in the U.S. war strategy -- were a new indication that the White House planned to seek still more time for its troop "surge" to stabilize the situation in Iraq.
Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, commander of day-to-day operations in Iraq, said via teleconference from Baghdad that the military would produce the report on time as required by Congress. But, he said, September would be too early to determine whether security improvements would last and whether the buildup had worked.
"In order to do a good assessment, I need at least until November," Odierno said. "If I have 45 more days of looking at those trends, I'll be able to make a bit more accurate assessment -- if it's something that we think is going to continue or something that was just a blip."
The September report looms large because key Republicans, such as Sen. John W. Warner of Virginia, have indicated they would not aggressively challenge the current strategy until after the administration delivers the assessment. Forestalling the challenge for another two months would allow the Pentagon to continue using the extra 28,500 combat and support troops President Bush authorized.
Thursday's message was greeted skeptically on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers questioning the U.S. ambassador to Iraq said the administration was "moving the goalposts" on progress in the war effort.
"We're in our fifth year [in Iraq] and ... I think we're going backward," said Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), a war critic who is considering a White House bid.
Bush, during an appearance in Nashville, defended his decision to initiate the troop increase.
"I made the decision that it was in our interest, the nation's security interest, instead of stepping back from the capital, to actually send more troops into the capital to help this young democracy have time to grow," Bush said.
Although the Iraqi government has had little success in meeting 18 formal benchmarks designated by Congress, the Bush administration believes U.S. military forces have improved the security of Iraqi citizens and that additional progress will be evident by September.
