Detlof von Winterfeldt, director of the USC Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism, a research center funded by Homeland Security, said that "Our research suggests a dirty bomb could create cancer in tens or hundreds of people. But the economic impacts of the radioactive contamination could be devastating."
It would take weeks, perhaps months, to clean up a dirty-bomb site so port workers could begin working again, he said.
One challenge facing authorities is the volume of material coursing through the ports. Roughly only 4% of the more than 14 million cargo containers that move through the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex annually are inspected.
"I worry we are ripe for an attack, and a port complex like this could be the first target," said Rep. Jane Harman (D-Venice), coauthor of the Safe Port Act of 2006, which mandated the creation of a port recovery strategy. "Are we really ready?"
By the end of this year, 100% of all the containers arriving in the nation's seaports will be scanned for radiological and nuclear threats, Chertoff said. In the meantime, seaports are relying on year-old monitors that can detect the presence of radiation in containers passing nearby.
Chertoff, Harman and dozens of reporters watched a demonstration of a new generation of monitors ostensibly able to distinguish materials that either naturally emit radiation, such as granite and kitty litter, or pose a nuclear threat.
On cue, a container deliberately seeded with a sample of nuclear material triggered a prerecorded warning from a small speaker: "Threat alarm. Threat alarm. Threat alarm."
Chertoff acknowledged that the system was prone to failure in inclement weather and that small amounts of radioactive material could elude detection.
"We won't spend money on it until it's working properly," he said.
Later Friday, more than 500 people gathered at USC's Bing Theatre to hear Chertoff speak about "security in the 21st century," and the potential economic effects of a catastrophe at the port complex, which generates an estimated $295 billion a year.
"Cleary, if terrorists want to devastate our economy, then from a cost/benefit perspective, one way of doing that is to launch devastating attacks on those essential vehicles for commerce and trade," Chertoff said.
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louis.sahagun@latimes.com
