Gingrich versus gore in 2008. Gore? Gingrich? They are not even running! But the possibility is not nearly as flaky as it sounds.
This election cycle creates a significant chance -- the first in modern memory -- that both parties could string out their presidential nominations until their conventions next summer. And if it's a convention free-for-all, delegates could as easily turn to alternatives as not.
The 2008 presidential election is the first in 80 years with no president or vice president running. It has seen the earliest start for top-tier candidates in history -- most were in and running hard by January. It has a more compressed schedule than ever before: Nearly two-thirds of delegates will be selected between the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 14 and the slew of state primaries on Feb. 5.
Conventional wisdom (no pun intended) says this front-loaded schedule will help a front-runner sew up a party nomination early. That may be right. One candidate could catch fire, win Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire and develop unstoppable momentum. Or a candidate may secure an overwhelming financial advantage and dominate TV ads leading up to Super-Mega Tuesday on Feb. 5.
But it could go entirely in the other direction. Why? One reason is the large field of candidates. Many are well-financed, and others have traction from a popular issue or a big geographic or ethnic base. That makes it less likely that one candidate can win all the early caucuses and primaries.
Democrat Bill Richardson's Latino heritage and Southwestern base, for example, could give him enough pull in Nevada to slow the momentum of any Iowa winner. On the Republican side, Mitt Romney has early strength in Iowa; John McCain, even after his meltdown, remains strong in New Hampshire; Fred Thompson is popular in South Carolina; Rudy Giuliani is a favorite in Florida. All could have the wherewithal to survive the first weeks of the formal campaign.
If no dominant candidate emerges from Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire et al, then the up-to 22 contests on Feb. 5 -- with primaries and caucuses spread from California to Delaware -- are more likely to accentuate the divisions than anoint a winner.
