But GOP consultant Dan Schnur believes that Brown would lose: "He had two great advantages in the attorney general's race. One was disproportionate name ID. That's not going to happen [in the next Democratic gubernatorial primary]. Westly, Angelides, Newsom, Villaraigossa, Garamendi or O'Connell could get themselves as well known. And [Brown] wouldn't have the fundraising or name ID advantage he had over [former state Sen. Chuck] Poochigian."
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Gov. Moonbeam 2.0?
There's speculation percolating that Jerry Brown wants his old job back.
For The Record
Los Angeles Times Wednesday, September 26, 2007 Home Edition Main News Part A Page 2 National Desk 2 inches; 76 words Type of Material: Correction
Rose Bird: An article in Section A on Aug. 19 about California Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown, and previous articles in the Times, have described former California Chief Justice Rose Bird as having been recalled from office. Bird was the target of unsuccessful efforts to hold a special election to recall her. However, she lost her seat in a scheduled November 1986 election in which voters were asked whether she should receive another term on the court.
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Democratic consultant Garry South is equally pessimistic: "The guy is pretty dated. There will be multiple candidates in the primary, and it will have been 36 years since he first ran for governor
Anybody born since the early '70s doesn't have any recollection of Jerry Brown."
OK, so what if Brown could win the Democratic nomination. How would he do in a general election?
Well, his track record running statewide is impressive. In 1970, Brown was elected secretary of state, defeating James Flournoy (50%-46%). Four years later, he beat Houston Flournoy (50%-47%) to become governor and was reelected in 1978, besting Evelle Younger (56%-37%). Brown lost a U.S. Senate bid to Pete Wilson in 1982 (45%-51%), and defeated Poochigian (56%-38%) last year in the attorney general's race.
It's pretty clear that, against staunch conservatives (Younger, Poochigian), Brown has done well, but less so against moderates (Wilson). So, what about the most likely Republican gubernatorial candidate on the horizon: Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, the moderate Silicon Valley multimillionaire?
Not exactly a household name, but if he's willing to spend upward of $40 million, he could probably change that.
Poizner "would have a lot of money, and he's a little more moderate" than a number of other potential Republicans, said Khachigian. "In the criminal justice area, [Brown would] be vulnerable."
As Khachigian sees it, Brown tried to build up his law enforcement bona fides while mayor of Oakland, but his stands -- opposing the weakening of the state's "three strikes" law, for instance -- have lacked genuine substance, which leaves him open to challenge.
Said Khachigian: "For Jerry, it doesn't have to be real, it just has to be perceived as real."
