Let a thousand scenarios bloom

WASHINGTON — No, he is not running for president, Michael R. Bloomberg insisted on Wednesday.

But a day after the billionaire mayor of New York City quit the Republican Party, his clear flirtation with a White House run kept alive a frenzy of speculation on the what-ifs of a prospective third-party bid.

Those who follow presidential politics closely offered a panoply of opinions on how Bloomberg might scramble the calculations of Democrats and Republicans -- even as they expressed doubt that Gotham's lame-duck mayor could win the White House as an independent.

Some thought a Bloomberg campaign would be a disaster for Democrats, opening the door for a GOP victory despite the dismal poll ratings of the current Republican president.

Others said Republicans would be hurt, especially if they nominate Rudolph W. Giuliani, the man Bloomberg replaced at New York City Hall.

Still others conceded that they had no clue which candidates Bloomberg would help or hurt.

"You need to know who the nominees are" before making any reasonable forecast, said Roy L. Behr, a Democratic strategist who has written a book about third-party candidates.

Nonetheless, the wall-to-wall conjecture underscored the volatility of the rapidly evolving 2008 campaign and a hunger among many Americans for a departure from politics as usually practiced.

"The dynamic of 2008 is a very restive electorate, which has turned on both parties and Washington and is looking for something that's not traditional," said GOP strategist Don Sipple.

He added: "They don't believe the leadership of either party is working for the country, or working in their best interest. That's the climate that opens things up for a Bloomberg, or any other credible, nonpartisan-type problem-solver."

Most of the hypothesizing ignored the huge obstacles facing Bloomberg -- or any candidate who tries to win the White House outside the traditional two-party system.

"There will be moments of wild fantasy about him becoming president of the United States, but those moments will tend to overstate the viability of his candidacy," said Steven J. Rosenstone, a University of Minnesota political scientist and co-author with Behr of "Third Parties in America."

Rosenstone said the political system was heavily stacked against an independent candidate, in everything from ballot-access laws at the state level to the electoral college, which all but ensures perpetuation of the two-party system.