In the end, ethics charges and countercharges probably had less effect on the outcome of the race than both sides expected. Wilson ultimately came from behind to win by 875 votes. The crucial factor, most analysts say, was Madrid's poor performance in their only televised debate.
Wilson's race was closely watched by national political leaders from the outset because she represents a classic swing district: a Democratic-leaning area of New Mexico that repeatedly reelected the moderate Republican.
She won her seat in the House after Domenici threw his considerable political weight behind her as she ran against a crowded field of candidates in a 1998 special election. Democrats tried repeatedly to unseat her, but got their best shot in 2006 when they persuaded Madrid, the popular state attorney general, to run against her.
Madrid and national party officials linked Wilson to two things deeply unpopular among her constituents: Bush and the war in Iraq. They also tried to tie her to GOP ethics scandals involving discredited lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and ran an early television ad criticizing her for accepting campaign donations from former Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas).
Republicans used the ethics issue to fire back at Madrid. Wilson accused Madrid of dragging her feet in state corruption investigations. And national GOP officials compiled two volumes of research to raise questions about Madrid's ethics. "That was a big part" of the national strategy to stymie Madrid, one GOP operative recalled.
But the political climate was moving against Wilson. Democrats at the top of the ticket -- Sen. Jeff Bingaman and Gov. Bill Richardson -- were leading by double digits. In Washington, word broke that then-Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) had sent sexually explicit e-mails to teenage boys who had served as congressional pages; Wilson was on the board overseeing the page program and had to explain why she did not know of his misconduct. Bush's approval rating in New Mexico was among the lowest in the country, and the war in Iraq went from bad to worse.
An independent poll in late September had the race tied at 44% to 44%, and by mid-October surveys showed Wilson trailing by as much as 8 percentage points.
