PARIS — French politicians are masters of nuance who choose their words carefully, so it is striking that both candidates in today's presidential runoff election have talked a lot about a country in crisis.
"France is undergoing an unprecedented identity crisis," says Nicolas Sarkozy, the center-right candidate who is considered the front-runner. "Her model of integration has broken down, her social model is failing, her cohesion crumbles. A terrible doubt overcomes her. She has doubts about her values, her future, her identity, her vocation."
Both Sarkozy and his rival, Segolene Royal of the Socialist Party, cite a long list of specific woes: Low economic growth. High unemployment. A burdened public sector that spends almost half its budget on salaries and pensions. Youth riots that revealed rage and alienation in the Muslim immigrant community. Declining French influence in Europe and beyond.
Nonetheless, the "crises" do not add up to catastrophe. France still has the world's sixth-largest economy, a nuclear arsenal, a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and a muscular diplomatic corps. The transportation, health, education and cultural infrastructures are hard to beat. Most French families enjoy generous job security, vacations and retirement benefits.
A central nation
The problem is that society has slid into what the French call \o7immobilisme\f7, or paralysis. Voters see Sarkozy and Royal as strong, youthful leaders who will finally confront it. They expect the new president to reassert French power abroad and find a way to make structural reforms at home while preserving the system's comforts.
"I think this is a moment of truth for France, and the reforms that it needs, based on the model of what is being done in Germany by [Chancellor Angela] Merkel and was done in Britain by [Prime Minister Tony] Blair," said Michel Barnier, an advisor to Sarkozy. "France is historically, economically, geographically, culturally a central nation, but we have not known how to take advantage of that centrality. Our world has changed a lot and our diplomacy must adapt to the world."
As voting began Saturday in French overseas territories, it seemed likely that Sarkozy would lead the way into that changing world. Voters thought he performed better than Royal in a televised debate Wednesday, according to the latest polls. He has never trailed Royal in the polls, which showed his lead stable or widening going into today's runoff. During a media briefing Friday, an independent pollster all but predicted a Sarkozy victory.
