Coercion won't cut it with Iran
EARLIER THIS month, Vice President Dick Cheney threatened Iran from the deck of an aircraft carrier. Two days later, the U.S. announced direct talks with Iran on Iraq. The Bush administration wants to have it both ways, using threats as leverage to win diplomatic concessions in talks. But for negotiation with Tehran to succeed, threats won't work. That's because threats will only strengthen the hand of a powerful Iranian faction that is opposed to talks.
Washington needs to digest the realities of Iranian domestic politics. There are no pro-Americans in the Iranian government, but there are three factions of conservatives whose differing views matter.
First are the hard-line conservatives headed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a faction that includes the head of the Revolutionary Guard, Yahya Rahim Safavi; the head of the Basij paramilitary, Mohammad Hejazi, and the radical clergy. These powerful people want neither talks with the U.S. nor anything to do with a rapprochement. Veterans of the war with Iraq, these men ardently distrust the U.S. and could undermine talks or use them to thwart U.S. interests. And so they are likely to use U.S. military threats or the specter of additional sanctions to claim that Washington is not serious about diplomacy and that its gestures of flexibility are aimed more at Europe than Iran.
The second and even more influential faction is the traditional conservatives, headed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who is a balancer among groups. This group has the final say on key issues, certainly including talks with the U.S. It is leery but now supportive of talks; that stance could shift if Washington slings more threats at Tehran.
Finally, there are the pragmatic conservatives, headed by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, Hassan Rohani and the recently arrested Hossein Mousavian. They support talks with the U.S., call for a less-aggressive nuclear and foreign policy and stress the importance of integration in the global economy and attracting foreign investments. This group is not part of the policymaking establishment, yet individuals such as Rafsanjani retain influence. Official talk from Washington about military action undermines this faction, the only one that is committed to giving diplomacy a chance.
