WASHINGTON — For six years, the United States has staunchly supported Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, choosing to back a military leader seen as a strong ally in the "war on terror" rather than push the general more forcefully for democratic reforms.
But the risks associated with that strategy have become increasingly apparent in recent months, as Al Qaeda and the Taliban have gained strength in Pakistan's northwest frontier area despite billions of dollars in military aid to Musharraf's government since the Sept. 11 attacks.
That funding is Washington's main source of leverage over Musharraf. But officials said that it would be risky for the United States to withhold such aid to pressure Musharraf to reverse the emergency powers he decreed Saturday, acknowledging that the United States is dependent on Pakistan and can't afford to alienate its leadership.
"The problem is we have a war in Afghanistan, and Pakistan is a coalition partner," said a senior U.S. official involved in Pakistan policy matters who spoke on condition of anonymity. "We have troops on the ground in Afghanistan, and it's hard to have a good outcome there if Pakistan is not cooperating."
Largely for that reason, officials said, the United States is likely to continue to scold Musharraf but not impose significant sanctions.
The aim will be "to indicate our displeasure and to try to reduce the extent to which we become the target of the kind of ire of Pakistanis that is primarily directed at Musharraf himself," said Paul Pillar, a former CIA counter-terrorism official and senior analyst on South Asia.
A Pentagon spokesman said Saturday that there would be no immediate linkage between the emergency powers proclamation and the U.S. aid.
"The declaration does not impact our military support for Pakistan," spokesman Geoff Morrell said, adding that the "stakes were high" and that Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates was closely monitoring the situation as he travels to China on the first leg of a weeklong trip to Asia.
Morrell said that military officials had not threatened Musharraf with a loss of aid, despite reports that Adm. William J. Fallon, the head of U.S. Central Command, had warned Musharraf during a meeting Friday in Pakistan that such a move would lead to a halt in U.S. funding.
U.S. officials and experts described Musharraf's decision to declare a state of emergency as an attempt to reassert his authority, but a move that underscores how tenuous his position has become.
