The nation's major television networks say they are prepared to withstand a strike by the Writers Guild of America lasting three to four months. Some industry executives even believe a strike, although potentially damaging to the business, could carry some side benefits.
If a strike were to extend into February, it would disrupt the TV pilot season, the three-month period when studios make dozens of new shows as part of an expensive annual competition to win a coveted spot on the prime-time schedule of the five broadcast networks.
The television companies collectively spend more than $400 million a year on development and pilot costs even though only a fraction of these shows achieve long-term financial success. TV executives have long complained that the frenetic competition for actors, directors and sound stages doesn't translate into higher-quality television, just higher costs. Some hourlong pilots cost more than $7 million.
So for some TV executives, blowing up pilot season is not such a bad idea.
"Maybe the strike is giving us an excuse to shake it up," Fox Entertainment President Kevin Reilly said at a recent industry luncheon. Changing the way shows are hatched, he said, would be "the only good thing that could come out of a strike."
Writers are to begin picketing today outside studios here and in New York.
As soon as the guild's signs go up, production costs will start to come down, if only temporarily. That would give companies like NBC Universal, whose fourth-place network is struggling to stay profitable, a short-term lift.
Writers Guild leaders point out that these media companies are hugely profitable, earning billions of dollars a year, and that writers just want a more equitable slice of the pie.
"This is a strike for future generations of writers," said Carlton Cuse, an executive producer of "Lost." "It's just a critical point in the evolution of the business."
There are huge risks and downsides for the companies. Now that writers have gone on strike, the networks could see more viewers drift away, perhaps never to return.
Some shows would immediately feel the sting. Late night shows such as "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno" and Comedy Central's "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart" would switch to reruns because so many of the jokes are written the day the shows air.
