WASHINGTON — Republican strategists are beginning to fear that a deteriorating economy will pose serious obstacles for their party's presidential candidates, who may ultimately have to answer for rising gas prices and a slumping housing market.
For most of the year, the campaign has been dominated by dueling positions on the war in Iraq, national security, immigration and healthcare. But with gas prices topping $3 a gallon and home foreclosures a deepening concern, the struggling economy could trump other issues in next year's general election campaign.
President Bush is in his second term and can't face reprisal at the polls. So to the extent there is a voter backlash, it would be aimed at the president's party -- chiefly the Republican candidates vying to succeed him, GOP consultants said.
Economic forecasts are worsening: On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he expected a "sluggish" economy in the coming months. With millions of sub-prime mortgages due to be reset over the next 14 months, he said, more homeowners are at risk of default. The stock market has been volatile, dropping more than 393 points over the last two days.
"Any economic pain comes out of the hide of the Republican Party," said Don Sipple, a Republican strategist based in California.
"It's one more advantage for the Democrats."
Said Bill Whalen, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and an aide in the unsuccessful 1992 reelection campaign of President George H.W. Bush: "What a weak economy does is, it lets the Democratic nominee go out and ask the Ronald Reagan question: Are you better off today than you were eight years ago?"
When the economy is not doing well, a political truism goes, the economy becomes the issue. Hyperinflation during Jimmy Carter's administration paved the way for Reagan in 1980. In the 1992 race, "The economy, stupid" became the catchphrase of Democrat Bill Clinton's successful campaign, reminding staffers to focus on the recession that emerged in 1990-91.
Now, said Scott Reed, campaign manager for Republican Bob Dole's failed presidential bid in 1996, "the economy has shot up to the No. 1 issue over the last 30 days, eclipsing Iraq. You have to remember that people vote their pocketbook."
A dip in the economy that squeezes voters would fit the narrative laid out by the leading Democratic candidates. All have said that middle-class Americans have lost ground under the Republican administration, and they have rolled out plans aimed at making healthcare and education less expensive.
