Critics doubt Musharraf can be ousted - The Pakistani leader has always thrived on chaos, and he is relying on tactics that have kept him in power for years.

But even as activists across Pakistan vow to step up their defiance of de facto martial law, many of those arrayed against Musharraf are beginning to believe he may just survive this crisis, at least in the short term.

"We hope to prevail -- we are struggling against military dictatorship, after all," said Amina Paracha, a prominent attorney and pro-democracy activist. "But make no mistake, it is a struggle, and we don't know yet if we can succeed."

At 64, Musharraf is a leader who has always thrived on chaos, calculatedly making use of disarray to advance his goals. Though events of the last week often appeared to be spinning out of control, analysts said many of the army general's signature tactics came into play after he imposed emergency rule, including some that have served him well in the past.

He skillfully exploited rifts within Pakistan's political opposition, playing foes against one another. He alternated pleas for understanding with blunt displays of massive force. If his political allies entertained doubts, he forced them to maintain a united public front.

Although the Bush administration has been critical of his actions, it has maintained ties with the general, continuing to describe him as an "indispensable" ally in the fight against Islamic militants. U.S. aid to Pakistan is still flowing unimpeded, which helps Musharraf retain the loyalty of the army, the recipient of most of that money.

In the long run, analysts said, the United States may lose its patience if the general fails to deliver in his battle with the militants, but for the moment, Musharraf has managed to stymie his opponents.

"There's no immediate threat to him," said Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani author and analyst. "He's still the army chief, the masses are not in the streets, we haven't seen deaths of lawyers or other protesters, the army hasn't been called on to fire on anyone. . . . In the short term, there's nothing to stop him from doing what he is doing."

The emergency decree Musharraf issued on the night of Nov. 3 sent shock waves through Pakistani civil society.

The constitution was suspended, the judiciary was decimated and independent news stations were silenced. Thousands of mainly politically moderate Pakistanis -- lawyers and judges, professors and poets, students and seminarians -- are behind bars for daring to oppose the president.