CARACAS, VENEZUELA — Less than three weeks from a vote on his proposal to overhaul the Venezuelan Constitution and strengthen his grip on power, President Hugo Chavez is facing an uncharacteristic reversal in public opinion.
A growing number of students and voters, even a former Chavez crony, say they oppose the constitutional overhaul because they believe it is anti-democratic. But despite that, Chavez's bid to bolster his 21st century socialism is widely expected to pass.
Surveys by two independent pollsters show that only a third of Venezuelans support the changes, which have been criticized as a ploy to increase socialization and militarization of the country, and further concentrate power in Chavez's hands.
The pollsters, Alfredo Keller of Keller & Associates and Luis Vicente Leon of Datanalisis, each say that at this point, the proposal still is likely to pass Dec. 2 because a low turnout among the highly fragmented opposition would probably favor Chavez, a fierce and vocal critic of the United States. Although falling steadily over the last two years, Chavez's approval rating among voters remains solid at about 57%, Keller said.
Large numbers of Chavez opponents have abstained in recent balloting, including Chavez's landslide reelection last year.
Many are convinced that the polling is rigged in Chavez's favor, although international monitors have never found meaningful instances of fraud.
As the vote nears, the situation in Venezuela has become more uncertain and volatile. Ever since the final draft of the proposal was unveiled Nov. 2, student groups from universities across Venezuela have taken to the streets to demonstrate against the package or to demand that the vote be postponed to allow for further debate.
Student leaders and other critics have slammed the lack of transparency in the process by which Chavez and the National Assembly drafted changes to 69 articles in the constitution.
"The changes he is proposing are more appropriate to a constitutional assembly, not a simple yes or no," said Dariela Sosa, a journalism student at Andres Bello Catholic University in Caracas, the capital. "We want time to evaluate the proposal on its own merits, not according to who is proposing it."
The protests have intensified as Chavez has portrayed students as the spoiled offspring of the rich and tools of his enemies. Chavez described his foes at a news conference Tuesday as "mafia, gangsters like Vito Corleone."
