Early caucuses put student vote in play

AMES, IOWA — In the days leading up to the 2004 Iowa caucuses, Iowa State University's sprawling campus crackled with excitement. Volunteers, celebrities and candidates thronged the university, urging students to vote in the nation's first presidential contest. Campus rallies had the charged atmosphere of rock concerts, and singer Joan Jett stopped by to belt out a new take on her hit "I Love Rock N' Roll" -- "I Love Howard Dean."

It's going to be different this time: The Iowa caucuses are being held Jan. 3, the middle of winter break. With college students home for the holidays, campuses across the state will be empty.

But the early caucus date could shift voter dynamics, adding young voices at their hometown caucuses across the state while diminishing the turnout at college precincts. Or, it could mean even fewer college students will take part in the electoral process.

Either outcome will affect the tally for Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, who is in a tight race with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York to carry the state. The Obama campaign is banking on young voters, and the timing of this year's caucuses could work to his advantage.

"It's much easier to get kids to caucus if they're on campus," said Gordon Fischer, former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party and an Obama supporter. "But when they're spread out, students can have a lot more impact."

Small share of voters

In Iowa, as in the rest of the nation, college-age voters are a sliver of the electorate. The Iowa Democratic Party reports that of the 124,000 voters who participated in the 2004 caucus, 3.9% were between 18 and 24. The Republican Party of Iowa does not track the age of its caucus-goers, but a spokeswoman said its numbers were probably similar.

Although students tend to register as voters on campus in Iowa, it's easy to switch their registration on caucus night and vote at precincts in their hometowns.

The Republican presidential race appears unlikely to be swayed by the student turnout, but the Democratic primary could be, said Iowa State University political science professor Dianne Bystrom.

"Obama is helped the most by turnout of young voters," she said.

Of the Democratic candidates, the Illinois senator has the greatest support among young people and the least among senior citizens. So if Obama student supporters caucus in their hometowns, where the average caucus-goer is in his early 60s, they could help the senator pick up delegates in areas where his support might otherwise be lukewarm, Bystrom said.