"Ultimately, a retreat is our only solution," said Orrin H. Pilkey Jr., director of the Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines at Duke University in Durham, N.C. He said the coast is eroding, sea levels are rising and there is growing concern -- though no scientific consensus -- that hurricanes may be becoming more forceful.
While the risk of coastal disasters is greatest on the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts because of the low topography and strong risk of hurricanes, experts say rising sea levels will eventually affect the entire U.S. shoreline.
A 2000 study by the Federal Emergency Management Agency estimated that by 2060, erosion could wipe out one of every four homes within 500 feet of U.S. coasts.
Gary Griggs, professor of earth and planetary sciences at UC Santa Cruz, said that in California, particularly vulnerable "hot spots" include north San Diego County, where beaches are narrow and cliffs are heavily developed. He added that similar risks are posed in Malibu, where people live right on the beach.
Experts say a retreat, however, does not have to mean a mass federal buyout. Another potential option is for the government to stop allowing those who live along the coast to rebuild their homes after hurricanes and storms.
Many in Bay St. Louis argue that instead of urging people to leave, federal officials should help build stronger and more elevated structures that can withstand powerful winds and floods.
"They're pushing the panic button" because of Katrina, said James C. Thriffiley III, president of the Bay St. Louis City Council. "They're taking this one event -- the worst possible catastrophic hurricane -- and basing every decision in this town on it."
Facing such a volatile and far-reaching issue as coastal development, Congress will likely not end up approving the corps' plan to buy out so many homes along the Mississippi Gulf Coast, Thriffiley and other local officials say. Residents, they say, did not greet corps representatives warmly at the September public hearing in Bay St. Louis.
Yet Thriffiley worries that mere talk of a buyout is stalling the city's rebuilding effort: Homeowners are wondering whether to continue repairing homes that may eventually be torn down. Business people are reconsidering plans for new restaurants and stores. Investors are pulling out of construction projects.
"The entire community is now in limbo," he said.
