A writers' strike nobody wants

Studios are cramming to shoot as many episodes of existing series as they can before any work stoppage. Crews on NBC's "Heroes" and ABC's "Ugly Betty" have been hustling like crazy, with multiple units racing to shoot two episodes simultaneously last week. "The studio wants to get as much stuff shot as we can by Nov. 1, but we can only write the show as fast as we can write it," Carlton Cuse and Damon Lindelof, executive producers of "Lost," wrote me in an e-mail. (Cuse sits on the guild's 17-member negotiating committee.)

Some new shows with middling-to-poor ratings -- including NBC's "Journeyman" and CBS' "Cane" -- have received extra script orders.

Network officials aren't talking for the record about their strike plans. But almost everyone agrees that once the supply of new scripted episodes gets burned off -- say, by mid-January -- network prime time schedules would quickly devolve to the two "Rs": reality and repeats. Reality shows generally don't use guild talent, so existing series like "American Idol" and "Dancing With the Stars" would be strike-proof.

There might suddenly be more prime time sports too. And after disappearing almost entirely from network schedules, newsmagazines might come roaring back in style.

Perhaps most important, if the strike lasted for longer than a few weeks, the pilot season -- when networks would start the process of producing new dramas and comedies for the 2008-09 season -- would be thrown into disarray. The networks are already hedging bets by giving some early pilot orders.

In fact, the 1988 strike already offers clues about what we might expect this time around. Back then, newsmagazines like "48 Hours" caught on while scripted shows went dark. Some series, most notably "Moonlighting," never recovered from the disruption. And some folks made a valiant attempt to carry on: The host of NBC's "Late Night With David Letterman" gamely tried to write his own "Top 10 List" for a while.

But the past may not be a reliable guide this time around. The TV business bears little resemblance to its old self of 1988. At that time, networks and studios couldn't be owned by the same company. Broadcasters still had a commanding lead over cable. And beyond future Nobel laureate Al Gore, few people had even heard of the Internet -- which, by the way, first opened to commercial interests that year. No one was using iPods or DVDs or DVRs. "There's much more competition for the audience's attention than there was 20 years ago," said Tim Spengler of New York ad firm Initiative.