In New Hampshire, site of the nation's second contest, his support has dipped and he now trails Clinton by about 20 points. But in national polls (those admittedly imperfect yardsticks), Clinton is creaming him.
Could the man have misplaced his mojo?
"I can see that the candidate has had charisma," said Charles Kleiner, a retired Environmental Protection Agency engineer who attended an Obama town hall event at the Benton County fairgrounds recently. "And I'm getting a little leery that it's worn out and it's going away."
Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, who worked on John F. Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign, cautioned that it was far too early to predict a winner in Iowa. Kerry, he is fond of recalling, lagged in third place until a few weeks before the caucuses. That said, Mellman is also puzzled by Obama's poll numbers.
"There is something missing," Mellman said. "He's raised money in unbelievable amounts, generated tremendous enthusiasm . . . and vast amounts of publicity. And those advantages were not given to him on a silver platter. He earned them. There is something unique and special about this guy, and I don't know why that has not translated into more support."
After watching Obama speak on his Des Moines campus recently, Drake University political science professor Dennis Goldford glimpsed one reason Obama is not faring as well as many think he should.
"There is a tremendous curiosity factor. He radiated a certain cool that would be very attractive to college students and young people," Goldford said. "For older voters, though" -- and half of caucusgoers are 55 or older -- "the music's great, but where are the lyrics? He's been trying to fill that out somewhat, but for people inclined to go to the caucus anyway, the lack of experience is significant."
Obama, said Goldford, has a cerebral approach that leaves some voters wanting more. While Clinton is running "from the center" and former Edwards is running "from the left," he said, Obama is "running from above."
"He is trying to run against the process and politics as usual itself," Goldford added. "The last person to do that successfully was President Bill Bradley in 2000." (Rimshot, please.)
Considering the competition, said David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist, Obama is doing just fine in Iowa.
"We are in a dead-even race with the greatest political brand name and political machine in the Democratic Party," he said, referring to Clinton. "And the reason for that is that people have gotten a chance to know him and see him on television and in person."
