THE CONFLICT IN IRAQ: PROGRESS REPORT TODAY - Petraeus unlikely to have any surprises - The top commander has long indicated that he supports Bush's troop buildup and is against a quick withdrawal.

"Why don't you wait and see what [Petraeus] says?" Bush urged Congress in May. "Fund the troops, and let him come back and report to the American people."

Bush's reasoning, aides said, was simple: An assessment from Petraeus, a widely admired officer, was likely to enjoy more credibility with Congress and the public than anything the president could say. Aides knew, as well, that Petraeus was likely to support Bush's strategy in Iraq, because the general was one of the architects of the "surge" of additional troops this year to stabilize Baghdad and other areas.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the briefing room. Petraeus' report may not have as much impact as the White House had hoped, because his message already has been widely anticipated -- and even previewed by the general himself.

"The surge will run its course," Petraeus told ABC News last week, forecasting a gradual drawdown of some of the more than 160,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. "There are limits to what our military can provide, so my recommendations have to be informed . . . by the strain we have put on our military services."

Officials have said they expect Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker to make three major points: The buildup in forces is beginning to show results, but it is too soon to withdraw significant numbers of troops; the government in Baghdad has failed to meet the administration's political goals, but there are signs of progress at the local level; and, finally, a too-hasty withdrawal could have catastrophic consequences.

Administration officials expect Petraeus to report that the initial phase of the troop buildup has improved security in Baghdad, and in the provinces of Anbar to the west and Diyala to the northeast. He will probably announce that U.S. forces can reduce their presence in Anbar and Diyala, but not in Baghdad.

Petraeus does not intend to deliver a specific recommendation to Congress on how soon and how far to reduce troop levels; that will be up to Bush, who is expected to make an announcement this week. Officials have said that Petraeus and his aides have been considering the possibility of a nominal drawdown of a few thousand troops around year's end, but that the general does not want any significant reductions until he thinks it is absolutely necessary.