MOSCOW — For a few hours Wednesday, Russia's political establishment thought it was about to learn the likely answer to the most talked-about question hanging over this country: Who will succeed President Vladimir V. Putin if he steps down, as expected, next spring?
But Putin's selection of an obscure figure to fill the post of prime minister suggested that he was unwilling to tip his hand -- and relegate himself to the role of lame duck.
Early in the day, Putin accepted Prime Minister Mikhail Y. Fradkov's resignation, which both men said was necessary to set the stage for upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections. Commentators rushed to suggest that Fradkov's replacement would probably become the next president. Many expected Putin to choose Sergei B. Ivanov, a first deputy prime minister seen as particularly close to the president.
But Putin made an unexpected choice: Viktor Zubkov, 65, head of the Federal Financial Monitoring Service, a market watchdog aimed at fighting financial crimes.
The appointment, expected to be confirmed Friday by the lower house of parliament, appeared to put Zubkov, who had not been considered a candidate, in the running for the presidency but falls short of making him the favorite.
Zubkov's choice left observers guessing as much as ever about who might be the next president, given that Putin is expected to have a major say in the matter. The decision also left Putin in position to continue calling the shots in coming months without fear of power drifting toward a presumed successor.
Just Monday, Putin had used a sports analogy as a reminder that he had no intention of loosening his grip on the reins of power before leaving office.
"In our country, nearly everyone loves ice hockey," Putin said in televised remarks during a visit to the United Arab Emirates. "We know the way real professionals play -- until the last second.
"I will work in the same way," he said, "and will do whatever I can so that all the ministers, the whole government and the presidential administration work precisely in this style."
Putin consistently enjoys popularity ratings above 70% in polls, but the constitution requires him to step down at the end of his second term, in spring. Most observers believe that voters, heavily influenced by state-controlled television, will endorse whomever Putin selects as his preferred successor.
