NEWS ANALYSIS - President's goal now defined as 'success' -- not 'victory'

"Victory in Iraq is vital for the United States of America," he told cadets at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy in May. "Victory in this struggle will require more patience, more courage and more sacrifice," he warned National Guardsmen in West Virginia in July.

But this week, the word "victory" disappeared from the president's lexicon. It was replaced by a slightly more ambiguous goal: "Success."

"The success of a free Iraq is critical to the security of the United States," Bush said Thursday evening in his brief televised address from the Oval Office.

"Now, because of the measure of success we are seeing in Iraq, we can begin seeing troops come home," he said.

Bush's description of his war aims reflected two hard realities about his position on Iraq.

First, a large majority of the American public does not believe "victory" is possible. Dozens of opinion polls have found that fewer than 40% of voters think the war can be won.

Second, the men who are running the war -- Army Gen. David H. Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker -- made it clear this week that their immediate goals were more limited than "victory."

Where the United States once hoped for a peaceful, united Iraq governed by a Western-style parliament, Petraeus and Crocker described more modest goals: reducing sectarian violence, avoiding all-out civil war and encouraging self-rule with a strong role for tribal sheiks who are not elected.

"I cannot guarantee success in Iraq," Crocker said in hearings before Congress. "The challenges. . . are immense."

Petraeus shied away from even using the word "success." When a senator asked whether the United States had "a realistic chance to be successful" in Iraq, the general carefully replied: "I believe we have a realistic chance of achieving our objectives."

A senior official said the two men had deliberately chosen to be "minimalist" in their promises, recognizing that prior talk of victory had left many Americans disillusioned or doubtful.

The formal reason for the president's speech was to endorse Petraeus' proposal to begin a long-planned troop drawdown slightly ahead of schedule. The plan will leave more than 130,000 troops in the battle zone next year, unless Petraeus and Bush decide further withdrawals are possible.