King Putin?

Russian President Vladimir V. Putin faces a stark and fundamental choice that will affect his personal future and that of his nation. He can choose a weak successor who will not threaten his influence when he steps down in six months nor stand in the way of his becoming president again in 2012. Or Putin can choose a strong successor and risk his own political future. Right now, it's a tossup on what he will do. But the choice profoundly matters: A Russia with a weak president trying to govern while Putin pulls the strings backstage would reduce internal stability and increase the security risk for the U.S. and the international community.

This conundrum became clear to me when I, as part of a group of international Russia watchers, met with Putin, senior Russian officials and other Kremlin insiders this month at the president's dacha in Sochi. As in our previous meetings with him, Putin discussed a vast range of issues in great detail without the aid of notes or advisors. But this time I came away from the meeting worried about how Putin and his team would lead Russia forward.

In our discussion with the Russian leader, it was clear that the weak-successor scenario is under consideration. Putin's surprise nomination of Viktor Zubkov as prime minister might be the first step. Although known as a strong manager, Zubkov is not considered a man of vision capable of leading a great power. Nevertheless, Putin sang his praises to us and said Zubkov could be a candidate in the March 2008 presidential election if he performs well in his new job. That's much more of an endorsement than any of the other candidates have received, and no one doubts that Putin's pick will be the next president.

Even more dramatic were Putin's emphatic and repeated statements that he would retain substantial political power after the election, and that he and the next president would have to agree on how to work together. Putin is clearly considering some form of dual power in which he would exert influence as head of another institution. And he explicitly declined to rule out another run for president in 2012, which is permitted by Russia's constitution.

Kremlin insiders told us of plans to redistribute power away from the presidency to a number of institutions over the next four years. Often mentioned were the United Russia party, which strongly supports Putin; the Constitutional Court; the State Council (an advisory body); the Duma; and the National Security Council. The main goal is clear: Whatever institution Putin ends up heading would become a repository of power that would box in a new president.