WASHINGTON — Political turmoil and a spate of brazen attacks by Taliban fighters are forcing Pakistan's president to scale back his government's pursuit of Al Qaeda, according to U.S. intelligence officials who fear that the terrorist network will be able to accelerate its efforts to rebuild and plot new attacks.
The development threatens a pillar of U.S. counter-terrorism strategy, which has depended on Pakistan to play a lead role in keeping Al Qaeda under pressure to reduce its ability to coordinate strikes.
President Pervez Musharraf, facing a potentially fateful election next month and confronting calls to yield power after years of autocratic rule, appears too vulnerable to pursue aggressive counter-terrorism operations at the behest of the United States, the intelligence officials said.
At the same time, the Pakistani military has suffered a series of embarrassing setbacks at the hands of militants in tribal areas bordering Afghanistan where Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda figures are believed to be hiding.
U.S. intelligence officials said the conditions that have allowed Al Qaeda to regain strength are likely to persist, enabling it to continue training foreign fighters and plot new attacks.
"We are worried," said a senior U.S. counter-terrorism official who closely monitors Pakistan's pursuit of Al Qaeda in the rugged frontier region. The official, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to publicly discuss the matter.
"I think the prospect for aggressive action . . . is probably not good, no matter what," said the official, referring to the federally administered tribal areas where Al Qaeda is particularly strong. If Musharraf is removed from office or agrees to a power-sharing arrangement with political foes, the "change in government could well mean a diminution of cooperation on counter-terrorism," the official added.
A senior U.S. intelligence official said Pakistani retrenchment appears to have begun.
"We're already beginning to see some signs of that," the official said, citing a recent series of reversals by the Pakistan military.
"In the next few days, we're probably going to see a withdrawal of forces that the Pakistanis put there," the intelligence official said, adding that the move could solidify a "safe haven, where the [Al Qaeda] leadership is secure, operational planners can do their business, and foreigners can come in and be trained and redeploy to the West."
