KHARTOUM, SUDAN — Darfur's long-hobbled peace process has all but collapsed, principals here say, raising questions about the viability of a new U.N. peacekeeping force and the future of an international aid campaign approaching its sixth year.
Since a much-hyped Libyan peace conference fell apart last fall, a joint U.N.-African Union mediation effort has reported little progress in reaching a resolution or even getting players to the negotiating table.
"You hear nothing from them anymore," said Sudanese political analyst Safwat Fanous, head of University of Khartoum's political science department, about the mediators. "I think they've given up. There are no peace negotiations in the pipeline."
A chief negotiator said the peace effort was still alive, but would soon undergo an overhaul, including the appointment of a new top envoy and adoption of a streamlined agenda.
"No doubt the peace process is in serious trouble," said Sam Ibok, the lead African Union mediator. "It's not going anywhere."
He said participants, including the Sudanese government and rebel movements, had lost confidence in the process and remained unable to overcome their mutual distrust. Both sides also suffer from internal divisions. The rebels have fractured into more than 20 groups, and the Arab-dominated administration of President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir has failed to formulate a clear Darfur strategy in conjunction with its power-sharing partner, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, or SPLM.
U.N. special envoy Jan Eliasson and his AU counterpart, Salim Ahmed Salim, whose joint leadership has come under fire, will soon be replaced by a single chief, Ibok said. In an effort to break the stalemate, future talks will focus on a short list of urgent issues, such as security, victim compensation and power-sharing, he said.
The stalemate comes amid a recent renewal of hostilities in some parts of Darfur, where violence and killings had significantly declined over the last two years.
Some worry that both sides are reverting to old habits in the conflict, which began in 2003 when Darfur rebels clashed with Sudanese forces and their allied militias. An estimated 200,000 people have died, mostly of disease and hunger.
After a December offensive by the rebel group Justice and Equality Movement in West Darfur, the Sudanese military in early February bombed three cities, killing more than 100 people and causing more than 50,000 to flee. Rebels accused the government of additional bomb attacks last week, local media reported.
