Making up with Vladimir

It won't be easy. Bush's Russia trip follows the NATO summit in Romania, and Bush this week reiterated his commitment to initiating a NATO "membership action plan" for Ukraine and Georgia, and to deploying missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic. Because Russia regards both steps as hostile acts, it's hard to see how Bush can make much progress when he meets this weekend with Putin and Putin's handpicked successor, Dmitry Medvedev.

Hard -- but not impossible. Conveniently for Bush, France and Germany seem determined to stall NATO expansion, which lets Bush put that issue on the back burner in talks with Putin. But real progress will almost certainly depend on Bush's degree of stubbornness over missile defense.

In theory, missile defense is supposed to protect Europe from Iranian missile attacks. It's a dubious theory; there's no evidence that Iran has the capacity (or desire) to lob ballistic missiles at Europe. (There's also, alas, little evidence that our missile defense systems have the capacity to intercept incoming missiles).

In a universe run on fact-based pragmatism, not ideology, Bush would use his visit to Russia to accept the offer Putin put forward last summer: to open up an American-European-Russian dialogue about missile defense, one that might include intelligence sharing, technological cooperation and jointly operated missile defense installations -- some in locations offered by Moscow. We'd gain Russian goodwill and retain the freedom to try to develop missile defense systems that actually work. Russia would gain reassurance that no U.S. missiles are pointed its way -- and lose an excuse for bullying its neighbors.

It's no panacea, but in the context of a genuine commitment to treating Russia as a partner and reinvigorating stalled talks on a broad range of nuclear issues, this would change the atmosphere. In the longer run, it would make it possible to meaningfully reengage Russia on vital issues ranging from nuclear nonproliferation to climate change and public health.

In Romania on Wednesday, a reporter asked Bush if it was possible to "avoid ... a diplomatic train wreck" during his visit to Russia.

Bush, the eternal optimist, retorted, "You call it a diplomatic train wreck; I call it an opportunity."

If he can be flexible on missile defense, he might even be right, for once.