The nation's air travelers may be wondering whether last week's three airline shutdowns signal more trouble ahead. But a bigger concern this spring may be the likelihood of more flight delays, jammed planes and even higher ticket prices.
With rising fuel costs, fewer planes in the sky and heightened safety concerns with aging aircraft, travelers can expect flights to be more expensive, crowded and late, giving passengers more reasons not to fly this year.
"It sure is a lot more expensive to fly these days," said Barry Trupp, a farmer who lives outside of Denver and was flying back home from Los Angeles International Airport on Sunday. "I wonder if a lot more people will take driving vacations."
If fewer people fly, struggling airlines may not be able to manage the high fuel costs and decide to call it quits, following last week's demise of Skybus, ATA Airlines Inc. and Aloha Airlines, analysts said.
The three regional carriers had different reasons for ceasing operations but all of them said high jet fuel costs helped push them over the edge. ATA, for instance, abruptly grounded all of its flights Thursday after it lost a major military contract for charter flights. Aloha cited "predatory pricing" from a new competitor, Mesa Air Group Inc.'s Go airline for flights between the Hawaiian islands, as a major reason for ceasing operations March 31.
What airline will be the next to shut down? "That's the $64,000 question," said George Hamlin, managing director for ACA Associates, a New York aviation consulting firm. With a credit crunch that has all but eliminated "sugar daddies to bail out airlines, the word to the wise is that weaker carriers will drop off first."
Analysts said regional carriers ExpressJet, Frontier and recent start-up Virgin America were considered somewhat vulnerable if fuel prices continued to hover at record levels. All three have service at Southern California airports.
ExpressJet, which last year launched service from Ontario Airport, recently began flights from Long Beach Airport and has been trying to lure budget-conscious travelers with low fares. Virgin America, a carrier started by British billionaire Richard Branson, has been adding flights at LAX to destinations such as Seattle and Washington, D.C. Frontier is facing intense competition from much larger carriers Southwest Airlines and United Airlines for flights to Colorado and elsewhere.
