Guantanamo closure no simple prospect

The three presidential candidates have all said they'd abolish the military prison. But where would the detainees go? And what rights would they have on U.S. soil?

WASHINGTON — A wave of change appears headed toward the U.S. detention center at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, with all three major presidential candidates vowing to abolish the military prison.

And somewhat surprisingly, closing the camp and moving the prisoners to the United States may be the easy part, said U.S. officials, former administration aides and legal experts.

But nobody has yet found a way through the legal thicket in the way. Especially vexing are scores of foreign detainees: Officials lack evidence to prosecute, but warn against setting them free.

These hurdles make some wonder about a new administration's capacity to turn the page on the prison.

"When it comes to closing Guantanamo, talk is cheap," said Matthew C. Waxman, a former Defense and State department official, now a Columbia University law professor.

"The question is: Who is willing and able to lead the difficult policy and political decisions necessary to get it done?"

From the outset, architects of the war on terrorism wanted a system that could imprison accused enemies in perpetuity, safely off American soil and out of U.S. courts.

Over the last six years, hundreds of men have been impounded there, and nearly 300 remain. Internationally, Guantanamo is seen by critics as emblematic of the administration's overreaching.

The closure pledged by the three presidential candidates -- Democratic Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, and Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona -- would represent a clean break with Bush administration detention policies.

Officially, Pentagon officials say there are no plans in hand to move suspected terrorists to the United States if the new president orders it. No official orders have been given to Southern Command, which oversees the prison, to prepare for its shutdown. Such orders would trigger a formal planning process.

But unofficially, midlevel officials watching the campaign pronouncements have begun working on plans -- including examining other sites and estimating the work that would be involved in moving detainees -- in case the next president orders a shutdown.

The next president could close Guantanamo and move the prisoners fairly quickly, said Charles D. Stimson, a former deputy assistant secretary of Defense for detainee affairs, now a scholar at the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank.


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