Dial back the Koreas' volume
Can the U.S., Pgongyang and Seoul find a diplomatic way forward?
Not since North Korea conducted a nuclear test in October 2006 has the decibel level on the Korean Peninsula been so high. In the last few weeks, Pyongyang's state-run media have branded South Korea's new president, Lee Myung-bak, a "U.S. sycophant," a "charlatan" and a "traitor" and warned the South that the North had the capacity to "reduce it to ashes." North Korean fighter jets, meanwhile, have buzzed the demilitarized zone and Pyongyang has test-fired short-range missiles off its western coast.
Many observers have characterized the North's latest actions as the behavior of an irrational, dangerous, surrealistically isolated regime. In reality, such moves have always been less a product of paranoia than a calculated way of making political points to the outside world. Although exasperating and alarming, there is a method to North Korea's madness. But to understand what Pyongyang is doing, one must start with what is going on in Seoul.
In late February, Lee, a conservative business leader turned politician, became South Korea's president following a decade-long thaw between the North and South. His two more liberal predecessors, Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, had pursued a "sunshine policy" toward North Korea of diplomatic engagement, economic cooperation and humanitarian assistance with no strings attached. Convinced that engagement had been largely a one-way street, however, Lee proposed a fundamental shift, vowing to link further aid and economic collaboration with North Korean "reciprocity" on the nuclear issue.
Lee has proved true to his word. South Korea voted for a U.N. resolution condemning North Korea's human rights record. Then the chairman of South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff declared that the South would consider launching a preemptive strike on North Korea's nuclear facilities if they became a military threat.
To the North Koreans, these actions -- which previous South Korean administrations had avoided for fear of angering Pyongyang -- represented a diplomatic betrayal, and the push-back began almost immediately.
"It is the traditional method of . . . our revolutionary armed forces," Pyongyang thundered in the same commentary that denounced President Lee, "to return fire and counter any hard-line steps with the toughest measures."
