The young and the restless
A new generation drawn to politics by Obama could just as easily become alienated.
As go the young, so go the futures of political parties.
In the fierce and seemingly endless battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, the enthusiastic involvement of an unprecedented number of young people -- roughly 14% of Democratic primary voters, up from 9% in 2004 -- presents the Democrats with an extraordinary opportunity to reshape U.S. politics in the coming years. It is theirs to seize or to squander.
Studies over the last half a century have repeatedly shown that voter preferences among most people in their teens and 20s have not yet crystallized -- a pattern referred to by social scientists as the "impressionable years" hypothesis. Yet, in response to the key historical events a generation encounters in late adolescence and early adulthood, young people begin to develop more stable political beliefs and party preferences. More often than not, those party allegiances -- even the habit of voting -- will stay with them for the rest of their lives.
Historically, political realignments have begun with the young. In the face of the Depression, people in their 20s rejected Herbert Hoover and flocked to Franklin Roosevelt. Most of them went on to develop enduring identities as Democrats. That generation's staunch loyalty was integral to the Democratic Party's political dominance through the mid-1960s. As late as 2006, the voters who came of age in the 1930s remained solidly Democratic, outnumbering Republicans 57% to 38%.
A parallel development -- this one benefiting the Republicans -- took place in the 1980s. Drawn to the optimism and clarity of Ronald Reagan, for the first time in decades a majority of young people who cast ballots voted Republican. These young voters in turn went on to become a cornerstone of Republican dominance of presidential politics over the last quarter of a century.
The future political loyalties of today's 18- to 29-year-olds -- a huge group of 42 million -- are still very much up for grabs. Nonetheless, their preferences in the primaries so far are clear. Among this group, Obama has won 22 of the 25 Democratic primaries for which exit poll data are available. In 13 of these states (including Missouri, Virginia, Wisconsin, Georgia, Illinois and Maryland), Obama won by margins of greater than 30 points. Even in the states Clinton most recently won, Ohio and Texas, he led among 18- to 29-year-olds by 26 and 19 points, respectively. In fact, were 18- to 29-year-olds alone to decide the Democratic nominee, Obama would win nationwide by a landslide of at least 20 points.
