The young and the restless

Especially important when it comes to future trends, Obama's appeal extends to the sizable number of young independents and Republicans who have voted in this year's Democratic primaries. (Though the young lean Democratic, between a quarter and a third of this generation identifies as "independent.") And -- perhaps of greatest long-term significance -- the battle for the Democratic nomination has captured the imagination of young people and stimulated record levels of participation.

In Obama, the Democratic Party has a potential nominee who offers a unique opportunity to bring the younger generation firmly into the political process, to make many of its members lifelong Democrats and perhaps to lay the groundwork for a historic realignment on the scale of Roosevelt and Reagan.

Yet with Democratic primary voters split nearly 50-50 so far, and with 10 primaries still to come, it remains possible that Obama will not be the party's nominee. Although there is no denying Clinton's many strengths, the ability to inspire young people is not among them. Should she rather than Obama emerge as the Democratic nominee, the developing but still fragile bond between the young and the Democratic Party could well be shattered. And should her nomination come about in apparent defiance of the popular will, a sense of outrage might drive many in the younger generation away from the Democratic Party and perhaps from politics altogether.

It is now clear that neither Obama nor Clinton will be able to win enough pledged delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination. In all likelihood, it will fall to the superdelegates to resolve the increasingly bitter contest between them. As they search for the wisest course of action, they would do well to remember that today's young people -- those born between 1979 and 1990 -- will still be a major electoral force in the 2050s and beyond. If the party alienates them, it will be a mistake whose reverberations will be felt for decades to come.