HBO as underdog

It's been much cooler to pull for Showtime, the once-scrappy competitor. There's also FX and TNT, and even AMC has burst out of the classic video box with "Mad Men" and "Breaking Bad."

All of which is terrific for television, but not so great for HBO. Because it's not just competition for viewers' eyeballs. It's competition for viewers' hearts. Ask yourself, and be brutally honest, would the whole "guilty pleasure" delight that has fueled "The Tudors" be quite as ubiquitous if it were on HBO? Wouldn't there be a tiny bit more eye-rolling over the bodice-ripping and scenery chewing? And what about "Mad Men," last season's darling of every critic, including this one? Yes, it had a near-perfect pilot and much of what followed was terrific. But the whole Don Draper identity theft subplot? Or the idea of a woman going through an entire pregnancy without knowing it? If that had run on HBO, we would have been All Over It, just like we would have screaming accusations of a through-the-mirror-darkly "Weeds" ripoff if "Breaking Bad" had been the anointed "Sopranos" replacement. But we overlooked such things because both shows were mostly amazing, and, admit it, it was so great to see old AMC having two good ones. "

There's also that pesky law of increased expectations. Once upon a time, HBO was the only place you could find an empathetic exploration of a sociopath or a beautifully graphic portrayal of drug dealers, a hilarious take-down of Hollywood or just some righteous sex scenes. Nowadays, you can find that sort of thing just about anywhere. "Dexter," the good-guy serial killer, reigns at Showtime (and more recently in repeats at CBS), while USA gave us Malibu on a platter in "The Starter Wife."

David Milch's "John From Cincinnati" wasn't just irritating and bewildering, it was also seen as an inferior replacement for his cultishly adored "Deadwood" (and, for some, the even more abruptly discontinued "Carnivale"). Final seasons of "The Sopranos" and, on a smaller scale, "The Wire" naturally evoked doomsday predictions of a Downward Spiral. Never mind that "Big Love," though ruptured this season by the writers strike, is both a critical and ratings hit or that people still love "Curb Your Enthusiasm." Never mind that "John Adams" has done well, especially considering that it's a historical drama composed, mostly, of men in waistcoats talking politics. HBO is perceived as being in full-blown midlife crisis, with the recent decision to replace Carolyn Strauss with Sue Naegle as chief of entertainment as its attempt at marriage counseling (the inexplicably low numbers for "In Treatment" notwithstanding).