Ominous signs for 'American Idol'

But the news still surprises: "American Idol's" ratings are down. Way down, among some viewers.

Could it be that the singing smash, which has entirely reshaped television over the past seven seasons, is finally proving mortal? And if so, what will that mean for Fox, the rest of the TV industry and Ryan Seacrest's career?

Some of the above are worth contemplating.

At first glance, the erosion doesn't seem so bad. "Idol" has slipped 7% in average total viewers (to 29.2 million, as of last week) compared with last season, according to figures from Nielsen Media Research.

"This show has defied the odds," Fox scheduling chief Preston Beckman told me Friday. " 'American Idol' has held up better than any other show, scripted or unscripted, on television."

And yet . . . this season the show has shed nearly one-fifth of women viewers ages 18 to 34 -- one of its most important constituencies -- and is down a comparable amount among kids 2 to 11. That's a bad sign, because children and young adults are generally the first to bail on a show that's getting crow's feet.

And the pace of the falloff may be quickening. Last week's performance show, featuring the songs of Mariah Carey, one of the most successful pop singers in history, was the lowest-rated Tuesday "Idol" in five years among TV's most important demographic, adults ages 18 to 49. The subsequent results show, in which country warbler Kristy Lee Cook got the hook, delivered "Idol's" worst Wednesday numbers among adults ages 18 to 34 since its first season back in summer 2002.

Producers also saw depressed ratings for their "Idol Gives Back" charity extravaganza, which this year aired as a stand-alone show with no competition-related material.

So, there you have the Nielsen bullet points. But what does it all mean? Is it a temporary speed bump for "Idol," or is the show headed for a long stretch of bad road? And if it's the latter, toward what does a decline for "Idol," TV's No. 1 show, point for future TV programming and scheduling?

The first thing to remember, of course, is that "Idol's" ratings are still huge, even if they were huger in years past. The April 8 telecast easily grabbed the crown as the week's No. 1 telecast, with 24.7 million viewers. Although CBS beat the drums hard for the post-strike return of "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation," the forensics drama had to settle for a second-place tie with the "Idol" results show (20.1 million). It goes without saying -- well, rival executives will certainly say it, just not on the record -- that other networks would be quite happy to have a No. 1 show with these kinds of problems.