Fox executives, for their part, are quick to point out that all of network TV has suffered in this strike-plagued season. And that's true: All five broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, Fox, NBC and the CW) have collectively dipped 10% among adults 18 to 49 this season.
Now, although you could make the argument -- as this column did awhile back -- that the effect of the writers strike should have created more opportunities for "Idol," Fox's Beckman took the opposite view. Rival networks threw so many strike-inspired reality programs on the air, he said, that "the number of unscripted shows that went against 'American Idol' was double what they were last year."
The more fundamental problem, though, is probably show fatigue. The conventional wisdom among TV producers and their accountants is that hit shows, no matter how popular, usually start delivering diminished ratings somewhere from Season 5 to Season 7. Seen that way, "Idol's" apparent decline is adhering to form. Some fans are seeing the program as less essential than it was a year or two ago. How many times can Americans see Seacrest insult Simon Cowell, and vice versa, before they say, "Enough already"?
"It would be great if the ratings could stay in the high 20s or low 30s," said executive producer Ken Warwick, referring to "Idol's" customary viewership in the tens of millions. "But everything has a sell-by date. Everything."
Warwick scoffed at Cowell's notion, quoted in a recent Variety interview, that the show was suffering this year because the contestants lack "personality" and are making "safe" song choices.
That's not to say, though, that Fox and the producers aren't going to huddle at the end of the season and talk about making some changes. The network carefully weighs research on audience reactions to "Idol," Beckman said. This season, executives noticed that the ratings dipped a bit during the audition phase, rebounded during the Hollywood rounds and then dropped to last week's lows.
"We have to think about how it's presented," Beckman said of "Idol," although he declined to speculate what sorts of changes might be in the offing: "These are questions you naturally ask when a show is in its seventh year."
How the rest of television will respond to more earthbound "Idol" numbers is harder to parse.
