The demographics: A loss by a narrow margin would help Obama argue that he had overcome the two biggest setbacks of his candidacy: the controversies over his pastor's racially explosive sermons and his own remarks that economically "bitter" voters in small towns "cling" to guns, religion and anti-immigrant sentiment.
Both dust-ups threatened to upend Obama's appeal to the white, working-class voters that formed the core of Clinton's base in her Ohio victory and which are seen as crucial to a Democratic victory in the fall.
Superdelegates want to see that Obama, who has struggled to extend his base beyond black voters and wealthy, educated whites, is able to compete against Republican John McCain for those swing voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio.
"I'll be interested to see how Sen. Obama's comments affected the race," said Montana's state party chairman, Dennis McDonald, who said he planned to sift through all of the exit poll data as he watched election results today from his cattle ranch.
The Clinton campaign signaled Monday that it would not be shy in arguing that nominating Obama would risk alienating certain white voters. In a conference call with reporters, campaign pollster Geoff Garin spoke in blunt terms about how the racial divide in Democratic contests -- with working-class whites clearly preferring Clinton over Obama -- makes her a stronger general election candidate.
"The Obama campaign has simply not done a very effective job connecting with blue-collar and middle-income voters, and they are the heart and soul of the Democratic Party," Garin said. He added later that Obama's "appeal among white voters typically has been among the people who are the most affluent" and best educated. It is unusual for the campaign to talk so directly about racial divisions among Democratic voters.
The delegates: Many superdelegates will be hard-pressed to vote for Clinton if she trails Obama among the so-called pledged delegates, those who are selected by the primaries and caucuses.
Even if Obama is thumped by 10 to 20 percentage points in Pennsylvania, Clinton would not pick up enough delegates there to cut substantially into Obama's lead. According to the Associated Press, Obama has 1,648.5 pledged delegates and superdelegates to Clinton's 1,509.5. A candidate needs 2,025 to clinch the nomination.
