Iran watching U.S. campaigns with hope for detente
Tehran could reciprocate by pressing Shiite Muslims in Iraq to rein in insurgents, and by stemming violence in Afghanistan.
TEHRAN — If an Iranian woke up in America and glimpsed the front page of a newspaper, he'd be reminded of home: a teetering economy, a restless populace, a tough-talking leader.
This nation is fascinated by what it calls the Great Satan, and it is watching the U.S. primaries for signs of how it might benefit from crises similar to its own facing the new American president. Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, this theocracy has clashed with Democratic and Republican administrations alike; it has endured international sanctions while practicing shadow diplomacy and brinkmanship.
Iranians know the new U.S. leader will inherit an overextended military in Iraq, a declining dollar, high oil prices and a sub-prime mortgage crisis that are straining the American economy. This scenario, analysts here suggest, may lead to a softer U.S. foreign policy, especially in the Middle East, where Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has become widely admired for his harsh line against the Bush administration.
Iran would be seeking signs of detente from the new American leader, including the lifting of sanctions, the unfreezing of about $20 billion in Iranian assets and Tehran's membership in the World Trade Organization. Iran is skilled at playing the outcast, but it craves international political legitimacy at a time its gas and oil reserves are being sought by China and India, whose energy demands are escalating.
Tehran could reciprocate U.S. overtures by pressuring fellow Shiite Muslims in Iraq to rein in insurgents and militias, and by stemming violence in Afghanistan. At a recent Friday prayers, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani hinted that Iran could work with the U.S. in calming regional tensions. His statement was vague but suggested a degree of diplomacy absent from Ahmadinejad's anti-Western rhetoric.
It is unclear how Iran's ruling clerics and the next American administration would resolve Tehran's support of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon, two militant Islamic groups that have long been U.S. adversaries.
There is also little indication that Iran would halt its nuclear enrichment program, which the Bush administration says is designed to build a nuclear bomb. Tehran says its nuclear ambitions are only for civilian energy projects.
