Clinton and Obama also performed nearly identically among lower-income voters in the national Gallup survey. Clinton did slightly better than Obama among voters who did not go beyond high school.
Citing her primary victories, Clinton has argued that she is more electable in the biggest swing states, such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. But when Gallup looked at the 12 states it considered most competitive this fall, it found Obama and Clinton leading McCain by the same margin: 47% for either Democrat and 43% for McCain.
Gallup listed Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon as the most competitive states.
Some analysts question whether Democrats need to make big inroads among blue-collar voters. Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said that Clinton's focus on the working class is a distraction, because Republicans tend to win among such voters.
Democrats John F. Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000 lost with that group by more than 20 points, he said. Even former President Clinton did not win among white men. "Obama doesn't have to win the working class," said Richards, referring to white voters without college educations. "He just has to cut Democrats' losses."
Obama aides argue that he has proved his ability to win across ideological and racial lines. They point to his decisive victories in such diverse states as Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Virginia and Vermont.
And Clinton may have her own problems with certain groups. Obama has carried as many as 90% of black voters in some states, and some have told pollsters that they will sit out the fall election if Obama is not the nominee. That would be potentially devastating for a Democrat who needs enthusiastic black turnout to have a chance in Ohio, Florida and other battlegrounds.
One GOP media strategist questioned the idea that Obama was more vulnerable to GOP attacks than Clinton was. He said both offered target-rich records.
"They both would be, in some states, as equal a drag on the ticket," said Chris LaCivita, who helped create the 2004 ads for the group Swift Boat Veterans for Truth that questioned Kerry's war record. "Right now, Hillary is a better target for us. But the more you see Obama in action, the better we're liking him."
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peter.wallsten@latimes.com
peter nicholas@times.com
Times staff writers Janet Hook and Noam N. Levey contributed to this report.
