By the end of the year, Ontario could experience the largest percentage drop in available seats -- about 14% -- compared with 2007 among all mid-size airports in the continental U.S.
Officials for Los Angeles World Airports, which operates LAX, Ontario and Palmdale Regional Airport, are worried that the number of travelers using Ontario could plunge dramatically next year, from 7.2 million passengers in 2007 to less than 5.2 million, a level not seen since 1989.
The drop-off could be so severe that one of the airport's two terminals would no longer be needed, a dramatic setback for Ontario's plan to accommodate more than 10 million passengers. More than $275 million was spent building the terminals, which opened in 1998.
The gloomy outlook has prompted an L.A. City Council committee that oversees the airports to meet Wednesday to discuss the pending decline in air service at LAX and Ontario as well as potential economic effects.
The decline will probably mean higher fares and fewer choices, factors that could discourage even more travelers from choosing Ontario. Many nonstop flights are being eliminated this fall, leaving passengers with little choice but to take a flight with one or two stopovers or drive to LAX.
"The business community will take a bit of a hit here in its effort to get to destinations important to them," said Ontario Mayor Paul Leon. "JetBlue and ExpressJet gave us an advantage."
Ontario isn't the only airport in Southern California facing such a predicament. With slowing demand and high fuel costs, airlines are retreating to larger airports such as LAX, where routes are more profitable, and eliminating duplicate service at nearby airports.
A third of the flights at Bakersfield's main airport, Meadows Field, will be slashed this fall. Responding to dramatic population growth, the city of about 300,000 residents had recently built a new terminal and extended a runway to lure more airline service.
As more carriers entered the Bakersfield market, "we ended up getting more competitive pricing," said Teresa Hitchcock, head of analysis and marketing for the airport. But now with airlines retrenching, "the big question is going to be how that affects fares."
Airports in smaller California cities such as Merced and Visalia are somewhat protected by a federal government program that pays airlines to provide service. Those communities were temporarily left without any scheduled service this summer, but by fall flights are expected to resume under the Essential Air Service program, which lined up other airlines to fly there.
