Stephen S. Fuller, director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University, says that many young families that moved to exurbia since 2000 racked up credit card debt and took on big mortgages. Now, he said, "if they're upside down on their mortgage, they'll be looking for someone to blame."
Democrats concede that Obama is unlikely to win a majority of voters in these traditionally conservative communities. But there are signs that 2008 offers a chance for Democrats to slice into the large margins that helped Bush win in 2004.
Already, Democrats have shown improvement at the ballot box. A study to be published soon by Brookings, a centrist think tank, found that Democrats increased their vote share in the exurban counties from 40% in the 2004 presidential race to 44% in the 2006 congressional elections, just after housing prices began to fall and gas prices began to climb.
Party strategists are studying the 2006 Senate races in three presidential battlegrounds -- Virginia, Missouri and Colorado -- to learn how themes focused on quality-of-life issues, such as traffic and infrastructure, helped Democrats improve and even win some exurban counties.
"They ran as pragmatists, offering to solve the problems of exurbanites," said Robert Lang, director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech. "If Obama runs a similar race or has similar appeal in those exurbs, that's the road to the White House."
Republicans also appear to be losing ground in voter registration. The GOP still leads among the 283,000 registered voters in Pasco County, but local elections officials report that Democrats are gaining -- adding about 5,800 new voters and party-switchers since January, compared with about 4,200 new Republicans.
Obama's top strategists have identified issues that they believe will sway a voting bloc that often includes parents of young children: job security, public schools and the cost of college, said deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand.
The Illinois senator's recent revision of his long-held opposition to expanded oil drilling was also aimed at this group, as was his promise of an energy rebate.
But interviews with dozens of voters in Pasco County revealed that Obama, who has mostly relied on the lofty theme of transforming politics rather than fix-it solutions, has yet to win their trust. And analysts say moving them from swing voters to Democratic voters is a tall order for a liberal politician attempting to become the first black president.
