"History tells us that it takes quite a bit of economic pain to cause traditionally conservative voters to shift candidates," said John D. Kasarda, a professor at the University of North Carolina's business school who has studied demographic patterns in suburbs.
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GOP strategies
Republican strategists are laying plans to convince anxious exurban voters that McCain would be far better for their car-centric lifestyles. Also, the campaign has deployed phone banks to survey exurban voters on issues that could lead to targeted appeals.
"We would make a mistake if we would say these are just Republican base areas so let's just turn out the vote," said Mike DuHaime, a McCain strategist who advised the GOP four years ago on its exurban targeting. "If anything, these are swing areas where if we run the wrong kind of campaign we could lose those counties."
Tom Grossman, the Republican chairman in Warren County, Ohio, near Cincinnati, said commuters in his area would be hearing frequently about Obama's resistance to drilling.
The argument has already worked for some, including a few mothers who sat poolside at the recreation center in a central Pasco County subdivision called Lexington Oaks.
As their children splashed, the mothers talked about paying thousands to gas up their SUVs, canceling summer vacations, even considering going back to work. Nevertheless, all agreed: McCain was the candidate who might lower gas prices.
But, in a worrisome sign for McCain, even one of Pasco's most prominent Republicans says he's not sure where his loyalties will take him in November.
Alex Deeb, who owns several construction companies, said he "couldn't build houses fast enough" in Bush's first term. But now, one of his firms just laid off 10 workers.
Deeb thinks McCain "doesn't get it on the economy" and wishes he could vote for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.). "At least she understands the economy," said Deeb, who says he's a "dyed-in-the-wool Republican."
When pressed, Deeb said he'd probably wind up voting for McCain. But the presumptive GOP nominee shouldn't bother asking for a campaign donation. Deeb said he wouldn't send him a check.
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peter.wallsten@latimes.com
Times staff writer Vimal Patel contributed to this report.
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About this series
Voter anxiety over the weakening economy and other problems is a central feature of the 2008 presidential election. This occasional series will examine how the candidates are responding to the discontent and how they would approach the country's biggest challenges.
