Russia aim in Georgia battle strategic

U.S. experts say Moscow's goal in the Georgia battle has been to lay claim to a sphere of influence on Russia's periphery.

WASHINGTON — Russia appears to be rolling back its military incursion into neighboring Georgia. But that's probably because what Russia wanted wasn't territory at all.

Instead, experts say, by sending in its troops Russia seized the upper hand strategically in dealing with countries around its periphery.

"They don't want to rebuild the Soviet Union, but they do want a sphere of influence," said Steven Pifer, a former deputy assistant secretary of State and ambassador to Ukraine.

Russia has itched to strike at southern neighbor Georgia's brash, Western-oriented leader, President Mikheil Saakashvili. And Saakashvili gave the Kremlin an opportunity when he sent troops into the separatist region of South Ossetia last week in an effort to reassert Georgia's sovereignty.

U.S. officials have called Russia's response disproportionate because its forces did not just expel Georgian troops from South Ossetia, but drove deep into Georgian territory and bombed Georgian targets.

Russian leaders most likely were responding not only to Georgia's military operation but to actions by neighbors and Soviet-era allies over a number of years.

"I think this was aimed much more to the West, more to Ukraine, Central Asia and the other Caucasus states," said Sarah Mendelson, a Russia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "I worry that any country in the region, such as Ukraine, that has been tilting towards the U.S., may now think twice. They may lean back a bit toward Russia."

For years, Moscow could do little but fume as NATO courted and enrolled Russia's former Soviet allies as members. But now, with its economy resurgent because of high oil and gas prices, and NATO and the United States preoccupied with Iraq and Afghanistan, Russia's relative power in the region has grown.

"For 3 1/2 centuries, Russia has dominated its neighborhood," said Angela Stent, director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies at Georgetown University. Russia is "throwing a gantlet down, saying that there isn't going to be any more NATO enlargement."

So far, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has granted membership to the three former Soviet Baltic republics: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Former Warsaw bloc countries from Poland in the north to Bulgaria in the south also have become members.


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