Georgia and Ukraine had been hoping to gain candidate status at a NATO meeting in December. But recent events in Georgia may make NATO members and even the two countries themselves think twice.
"The Russian argument is: 'We are a great power. This is our sphere of influence. Just because the Soviet Union collapsed does not mean that NATO can expand on our border,' " Stent said.
Russia has sought to use other issues to reassert its sphere of influence, including objecting to NATO's plans to install missile defense radars and interceptor missiles in Eastern Europe and objecting to the West's recognition of the independence of Kosovo, formerly a separatist region of Russian ally Serbia.
But Russia hasn't gotten what it wanted in these cases. The conflict in Georgia has drawn attention to its priorities in a new way.
"I think that American officials and analysts -- and I would put myself in this boat -- underestimated the scope of the Russian reaction to Kosovo's separation from Serbia," Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said in a conference call.
"The Russians at the time said that they may well retaliate by stirring up trouble in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and I think many people said, 'Well, that's going to be mostly talk.' In fact, they've gone ahead and done it."
In addition to reasserting Russia's regional preeminence, the incursion into Georgia also demonstrated the United States' relative weakness.
Janusz Bugajski, author of a forthcoming book on Russia's relations with its neighbors, said Washington's lack of forceful response sends a chilling message to nations that had been relying on the U.S. to counter Russia's power.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin "is demonstrating to the rest of the world that the United States is not the sole superpower any more. Or if it is, it's so stretched that it's not going to come to your aid," Bugajski said. "That weakens the U.S. position globally quite a bit."
U.S. protestations over Russia's incursion into Georgia probably would strike Russians as hypocritical, coming from a nation that invaded Iraq -- a country not even on its borders, Stent said.
Even if the United States resists the idea, it's possible that a resurgent Russia is ready for a new geopolitical rivalry in which powerful countries compete politically and militarily.
"I think it's not inappropriate to put this conflict in the context of a 'great game,' " Kupchan said. "There is still a battle going on for influence -- Western influence vs. Russian influence -- in the Caucasus and in the southern borderlands around Russia. And clearly I think as a result of this conflict Russia will probably feel that it has taken a step forward in maintaining a 'sphere of influence.' "
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maura.reynolds@latimes.com
