TBILISI, GEORGIA — The Russian diplomat said he couldn't make it. He had a flat tire. The Georgian official in charge of bringing breakaway regions back into the fold was incredulous.
Temur Iakobashvili had driven up to South Ossetia from the Georgian capital to begin Russian-mediated peace talks to end months of escalating fighting in the pro-Moscow republic. But his Russian counterpart hadn't shown up.
For The Record
Los Angeles Times Tuesday, August 19, 2008 Home Edition Main News Part A Page 2 National Desk 1 inches; 42 words Type of Material: Correction
Georgia's military: An article in Sunday's Section A about the run-up to the war in the Caucasus said Georgia's military budget was tripled to $3.2 billion. The budget has tripled in the last three years to $1 billion for fiscal year 2008.
"Can't you change the tire?" Iakobashvili says he asked Yuri Popov. No, the Russian diplomat replied. The spare was flat, too.
Less than 12 hours later, war between Russia and Georgia began, a conflict that has roiled the volatile, oil-rich Caucasus, raised tensions between Moscow and the West and nearly crushed this small U.S. ally.
But long before that flat tire, both sides had set their course for conflict, analysts and officials in Washington, Tbilisi and Moscow say: A combination of Russia's relentless drive toward confrontation and Georgian hubris made last week's warfare inevitable.
To some observers, the course was set after the 2004 election of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. On Russia's southern border, Georgia had been under Moscow's sway for centuries. Now, the U.S.- educated Saakashvili was turning the country into a staunchly nationalist, pro-American laboratory for Velvet Revolution-style agitation.
A trove of evidence strongly suggests that Russia was preparing the logistics for war well before Aug. 7. As long as three years ago, diplomats, officials and analysts say, Moscow started waging a multi-pronged propaganda, military and economic campaign against Georgia as it moved hurriedly and provocatively into the Western sphere -- and toward joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Russia's Cold War nemesis.
"The political decision was made in April," said Pavel Felgenhauer, a military analyst in Moscow who writes for the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington think tank, and for Russian publications. "It was final. Preparations were being put in place for a year beforehand."
Many say the Georgians, with the United States in their corner, became overly confident of their capabilities.
"These are the most romantic people in the world. They're very gallant, in the stupid sense," said Bruce P. Jackson, a close Bush administration ally who has worked extensively with Saakashvili and other leaders in the emerging democracies of the former Soviet bloc. "Do they really listen? They're very much 'the Charge of the Light Brigade' people. It has a lot to do with personal honor."
