Russia started issuing passports to residents of South Ossetia. In March this year, Moscow lifted sanctions on separatists in Abkhazia, another breakaway Georgian republic. The sanctions had been imposed under a treaty of the Commonwealth of Independent States, a loose confederation of former Soviet republics. The Russian parliament passed a resolution recognizing the demands of South Ossetian and Abkhaz separatists.
Russians were enraged when, over its strenuous objections, the West recognized Kosovo's declaration of independence in February from Serbia, a Moscow ally. Russians interpreted the move as hypocritical.
For The Record
Los Angeles Times Tuesday, August 19, 2008 Home Edition Main News Part A Page 2 National Desk 1 inches; 42 words Type of Material: Correction
Georgia's military: An article in Sunday's Section A about the run-up to the war in the Caucasus said Georgia's military budget was tripled to $3.2 billion. The budget has tripled in the last three years to $1 billion for fiscal year 2008.
"If the West could begin redrawing the map of Europe in this day and age," said a Western diplomat, "why couldn't Russia?"
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Hostilities build
Russia's actual preparations for a possible war began in April, according to analysts and Western diplomats, after Georgia and Ukraine, backed by the U.S., pushed to begin preparations to join NATO, what some called a decisive factor in the decision to escalate the conflict.
"There were so many times that they could have publicly renounced their desire to join NATO," Felgenhauer said. "That could have been the beginning of the solving of the problem."
In late April, Georgia alleged that Russia had downed an unmanned Georgian drone over Abkhazia; Moscow denied it.
A week before the conflict began, Russians completed a major railway upgrade project in Abkhazia. To experts on the Russian military, this was a key development.
"I know what railroad means for the Russian military in terms of military preparations," Felgenhauer said. "That's the only way we can move heavy equipment from one theater to another theater."
At the same time, Russians ran a military exercise in the Caucasus. It was focused on sharpening counterinsurgency skills, the European diplomat said. Among the units involved was the 58th Army, which ended up leading the attack into Georgia.
In South Ossetia, which is largely ethnic Ossetian but about a third ethnic Georgian, clashes began to erupt between the groups.
"There was extensive exchange of fire, kidnapping on both sides," Rondeli said. "Russians turned a blind eye to their allies. Georgians turned a blind eye to their allies."
A blast killed an Ossetian official. An assassin tried kill the leader of South Ossetia's Georgian community.
"After this," the European diplomat said, "everything started to snowball."
