"The whole world community tried to convince Georgia not to do this," the European diplomat said. "But someone crossed the border."
At the Pentagon, the first inkling of what was to come was a small sign: U.S. military trainers who were working to prepare Georgian troops for their upcoming deployment to Iraq at a training base in Vaziani, just southeast of Tbilisi, suddenly found themselves without students.
For The Record
Los Angeles Times Tuesday, August 19, 2008 Home Edition Main News Part A Page 2 National Desk 1 inches; 42 words Type of Material: Correction
Georgia's military: An article in Sunday's Section A about the run-up to the war in the Caucasus said Georgia's military budget was tripled to $3.2 billion. The budget has tripled in the last three years to $1 billion for fiscal year 2008.
"When their units didn't show up, or at least didn't show up in force," a senior military official said, "there was an indication something unusual was going on."
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Victory, then reversal
Within hours, war engulfed the southern Caucasus. The U.S.-trained and -equipped Georgian troops took Tskhinvali and began defeating the Russian troops.
"The first 12 to 20 hours, Georgia had the momentum," the European diplomat said. "It controlled almost all of South Ossetian territory."
But Russian troops and fighter jets began quickly swarming into South Ossetia, Abkhazia and ultimately Georgia. Russians dispatched two special forces units, though independent analyst say it is difficult to determine whether the Russian commandos were in place coincidentally because of a military exercise the previous week or were brought in specifically for a war.
"It was a huge miscalculation on the part of our government," said Tornike Sharashenidze, an analyst at the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs. "They underestimated the possible reaction."
The Pentagon's efforts to halt the Russian advance started in earnest Aug. 8.
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates tried to persuade the Georgians to stand down. He also spoke with Anatoliy Serdyukov, who became Russia's defense minister last year with little experience.
"I will tell you that Minister Serdyukov told me that the Russians have no intention of going into Georgia," Gates said.
But many observers say there was little the Georgians, Russians or Americans could do by then. The trap had been sprung, and Saakashvili seemed more than willing to take the bait.
"It's been clear that Russians have tried to create a situation where the Georgians would make a mistake," a ranking European diplomat said.
"The Russian action and the war was of course not an improvisation. These plans had been made some time ago."
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daragahi@latimes.com
peter.spiegel@latimes.com
Daragahi reported from Tbilisi, Georgia, and Spiegel from Washington.
