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Conditions may be ripe for Al Qaeda to gain in Somalia

THE WORLD

August 25, 2008|Edmund Sanders, Times Staff Writer

NAIROBI, KENYA — Conventional wisdom long held that Somalia was so inhospitable that even Al Qaeda gave up trying to gain a foothold amid feuding clans, erratic warlords and a wily population hardened by years of anarchy.

Now, in the wake of an aggressive U.S. counter-terrorism program that has alienated many Somalis, there are signs that Al Qaeda may have its best chance in years to win over Islamic hard-liners in the Horn of Africa nation.

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After once denying or downplaying links to the terrorist network, a senior leader of Somalia's most notorious Islamic militia now acknowledges that his group has long-standing ties to Al Qaeda and says he is seeking to forge a closer relationship.

"We are negotiating how we can unite into one," said Muktar Robow, a top military commander of Shabab, which the U.S. State Department designated a terrorist organization this year. "We will take our orders from Sheik Osama bin Laden because we are his students."

Merging with Al Qaeda operatives in the region makes sense, he said, given the recent U.S. crackdown, including a May 1 airstrike that killed Shabab's previous commander.

"Al Qaeda is the mother of the holy war in Somalia," he said. "Most of our leaders were trained in Al Qaeda camps. We get our tactics and guidelines from them. Many have spent time with Osama bin Laden."

U.S. officials said it's unclear whether Shabab's threat is real or just anti-Western rhetoric intended to rattle U.S. intelligence officials. Analysts note that Al Qaeda faces the same challenges that prevented it from establishing a Somalia base before, including power struggles among the country's Islamists, competition from local clan networks and differences between those seeking to focus attacks in Somalia and those favoring Al Qaeda's global agenda.

U.S. Ambassador Michael E. Ranneberger acknowledged growing links between Shabab and Al Qaeda, but said ties remained in the early stages.

"There are indications of a fairly close Shabab-Al Qaeda connection, though it's not clear to what extent they've been operationalized," he said. "Is Shabab taking orders from Al Qaeda? I would say no. They are still running their own show."

Robow said Shabab has been boosting its forces in recent months with an influx of fighters from around the world, including Kenya, Sudan, Iraq, Afghanistan, Algeria, Indonesia, Chechnya and even the United States. Al Jazeera recently aired footage of a masked Shabab commander who called himself Abu Mansur al-Amriki and spoke with an American accent. His identity could not be confirmed.

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